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HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5
http://forum.precisrcm.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=126
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Author:  Khairul [ Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:29 pm ]
Post subject:  HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5

Hi,

I have ran and analyse a simulation under HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5. For mean annual maximum temperature (2070-2099) trend, it shows a negative trend. Is there an explanation to this? I am confident that it was suppose to have a positive trend. As for the mean annual for the mean temperature as well as the minimum temperature have shown a positive trend. Looking forward for a reply. Thank you.

Khairul

Author:  Khairul [ Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5

Here is the file for further detail.

Attachments:
d.nc.tar.gz [53.16 KiB]
Downloaded 737 times

Author:  LauraBurgin [ Thu Jun 29, 2017 3:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5

Hi Khairul

Apologies for the slow reply. Many of us in the team have been on holiday so we are a bit behind at keeping up with the forum.

Someone will be in touch as soon as possible to help with this.

Best wishes
Laura

Author:  Khairul [ Mon Jul 03, 2017 1:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5

Thank you for your reply. Looking forward for your feedback.

Khairul

Author:  LauraBurgin [ Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5

Hi Khairul
I agree it sounds a bit strange if the minimum and mean temperatures show an increase. What data exactly did you plot? The file you sent is for an area, so did you look at the time series for the area average or for a particular grid point?
Can you possibly send me the files for min and mean temperatures too? I would like to plot them all and have a look at the data.
Have you plotted the data from the model used as boundary conditions. What trends does this show?
Thanks
Laura

Author:  Khairul [ Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5

Here are the files. Particular region of interest is only Brunei Darussalam (a small country) located on the Northern part of Borneo island, so I ran the simulation only for the upper northern part of Borneo and for the data I have only calculated area average time series for Brunei Darussalam region. The trend for mean and minimum shows positive trend.


Khairul.

Attachments:
maximum.tar.gz [73.49 KiB]
Downloaded 650 times
minimum.tar.gz [51.22 KiB]
Downloaded 789 times
mean.tar.gz [50.74 KiB]
Downloaded 771 times

Author:  Khairul [ Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5

Note: All other data which includes RCP 8.5 2021-2051 2070-2099 mean, minimum and maximum shows positive trends.

Author:  Khairul [ Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5

Is there any update to this topic? Thank you.

Author:  LauraBurgin [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5

Hi Khairul

Very sorry for the slow reply!

I have plotted the min, mean and max data files that you sent. Please see the attached. They seem to compare quite well with each other, showing similar trends.

Does this look similar to when you plot the data? I have taken an average across the whole domain that you sent. (Also note for the maximum file the area you sent is slightly larger in the longitude direction)

I don't know the meteorology of Brunei but these don't look too strange to me for RCP4.5. Perhaps you'd expect to see stronger trends with RCP8.5?

The code I wrote is in Iris/Python and I'm happy to share it if it would help with your analysis?

Laura

Attachments:
timeseries_all.png
timeseries_all.png [ 118.23 KiB | Viewed 16896 times ]

Author:  Khairul [ Tue Jul 25, 2017 1:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: HadGEM2-ES RCP 4.5

Hi,

Yes it does look similar to mine and they seem to compare quite well with each other, but if you check the trend in numerical value, we found out that the numerical value for the maximum trend to be negative, in comparison to mean and minimum producing positive trend. Shouldnt it be the similar in numerical value? which is positive. Or is it okay for it to be just slightly negative? Sorry, I hope my explanation is clear.

Looking forward for a reply. Thank you.

Khairul

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